Short answer: In many 48-hour contests the second day produces fewer QSOs per hour than the first. The causes are usually a mix of fewer new stations to work, changing propagation, tiredness and a plan that was made for the first day only. The hourly statistics of your log show where the drop began and how deep it was, and they help you decide whether the cause was conditions, habit or fatigue.
What the slump looks like in a log
Open the hour-by-hour view of a 48-hour log and look at the rate. On the first day, the curve usually rises in the first hours, peaks when the main bands are open and falls in the night. On the second day the same shape appears, but the peaks are lower. The total QSO count of the second day is often ten to thirty percent smaller than the first, though the figure varies greatly between stations and contests. The numbers are not a law, only a common pattern that you can compare with your own logs.
The statistics also show when the slump started. If the rate was low from the first hour of the second day, tiredness or a late start is likely. If the rate was normal until the afternoon and then fell, propagation or a lack of new stations may be responsible. The article on hour-by-hour analysis explains how to read the view, and statistics after the first day shows how to use the numbers during the contest.
Cause one: the pool of stations is smaller
Every station you work on the first day is a dupe on the second, on the same band. Many of the strongest and most active stations are worked in the first hours, and the number of new ones on each band drops with time. This effect is a natural result of contest dynamics and has little to do with your operating. It is also the reason why multipliers become the main source of points on the second day.
To see this in your log, compare the proportion of new multipliers per hour on the two days. If the second day brought fewer QSOs but about the same number of multipliers, your search was working. The article about multipliers per hour shows the method, and early versus late multipliers explains why the second day needs another approach.
Cause two: propagation changes
Conditions are never the same on two days. A band that was open for eight hours on Saturday can be open for five on Sunday, and a disturbance in the ionosphere can reduce the whole picture. You cannot control this, but you can see it. Compare the QSOs by band and hour for the two days. If the same bands show a similar shape with a lower level, the conditions were weaker. If a band that carried the first day disappears on the second, you need to find a new one.
Useful background can be found in solar flux and contest results. The practical conclusion is to treat the first day’s plan as a draft. After a night’s rest, look at the band map and the first QSOs of the day and change the plan if the picture has changed.
Cause three: tiredness
After twenty-four hours of operation, even a well-rested operator is slower. Reaction times lengthen, copying becomes less accurate, and repeats are needed more often. Because a QSO that needs a repeat takes longer, the rate falls even if the signals are the same. Tiredness is also the main source of errors, so a slump in rate often goes together with more doubtful QSOs. The article on fatigue, hours and errors shows how to see the connection in a log.
The remedy is rest that is planned, not left to chance. Short breaks at set times, a main rest at the time of the lowest expected rate, food that does not make you sleepy and fresh air. See also operator fatigue and breaks and off time and breaks in the rules, because in some categories the rules limit how rest is counted.
Cause four: a plan for day one only
Many operators prepare the first day in detail: bands by hour, expected openings, the first multipliers to look for. For the second day the plan is “continue”. The result is that the second day is spent on habit and not on a decision. A better approach is to write a short second-day plan before the contest: the main rest, the bands for the morning, the time to switch to multiplier hunting, and the time to return to running when a band opens for a short time.
Review the plan at the start of the second day. Look at the multipliers you are missing, the bands where you worked least and the time left. Make three decisions and write them down. The simple act of deciding often lifts the rate by itself, because you are working with a purpose again.
How to measure the slump
To compare two logs, use numbers that do not depend on the length of operation. Compute the QSOs per operating hour for each day, and compare the best three hours, the worst three hours and the average. Add the number of multipliers per day. Note the off time of each day. A day with a long rest naturally has a lower total, but its rate per operating hour can be good.
A Contest Analyzer report provides these views in one place: rates, QSOs by hour and band, countries, continents, CQ and ITU zones, WPX prefixes, breaks and off time. It also supports year-on-year comparison with your own logs, so you can see whether the slump is getting smaller. The check of every callsign and every zone against official license databases and several independent reference sources shows the few QSOs worth a second look. Often those are concentrated in the hours of the slump. The contests page lists the supported contests.
A worked comparison
Consider an imaginary single-operator log. On the first day the operator made 900 QSOs in 22 operating hours, which is about 41 per hour, with a best hour of 120 and a worst operating hour of 12. On the second day the operator made 620 QSOs in 20 operating hours, or 31 per hour, with a best hour of 85. The simple conclusion is that the second day was about 25 percent slower per hour. But the details matter. The best hour fell from 120 to 85, which suggests that the high-rate runs on the first day were not repeated, probably because the pool of stations was smaller. The worst hour was similar on both days, which suggests that the quiet hours were quiet anyway.
Now look at the multipliers. If the operator found 140 on the first day and 60 on the second, the second day was in fact productive: 60 new multipliers from 620 QSOs is a good return. The slump in QSOs may be the price of a successful search. If the second day brought only 15 new multipliers, the operator should ask whether the time on the second day could have been spent more usefully on another band. The example shows why a single rate figure is not enough, and why you should read rate and multipliers together.
The morning of day two
The first hours of the second day are a good time to reset. Take five minutes to look at the log of the first day. Which bands gave the best results? Which multipliers are still missing? Which hours were weak? Then fix a plan for the next six hours and write it on a card. If you run a second radio, decide how it will be used for multiplier search. If you are alone, decide when you will leave the run frequency to search.
It also helps to change something small: the order of the bands, the position of the chair, the music in the room or the drink at your desk. A small change can bring a feeling of a new start, which is useful after a night of fatigue. Avoid big changes to the station on the second morning, however. A new problem at that point costs more than it can win.
Habits that keep the slump small
- Plan the main rest for the quietest hours, and keep it short but real.
- Write a second-day plan before the contest and revise it in the morning.
- Switch the balance toward multipliers when new QSOs become rare.
- Eat light food, drink water and move around each hour.
- Do not let the log suffer: slow down for suffixes when you are tired.
None of these is dramatic. Together they can make the difference between a slump of thirty percent and one of fifteen.
Related reading
- Band Strategy Hour by Hour
- The Last Hours of a Contest: What to Do
- Setting Contest Goals From Last Year’s Statistics
The bottom line
A second-day slump is normal, but its size is partly in your hands. Read the hourly view to see when it began, separate conditions from fatigue and habit, plan the second day on its own and rest on purpose. Then compare the same figures next year to see the progress.
FAQ
How big is a normal second-day drop?
It varies. Compare your own logs from the same contest rather than a general figure.
Should I rest more on the first day to avoid the slump?
A planned rest on the first night often helps. Check the current rules for how off time is counted in your category.
Is the slump the same in all contests?
No. It depends on the contest length, the number of active stations and the conditions.
How can I see the slump in my report?
Look at QSOs by hour and band and at breaks and off time. A year-on-year comparison shows the change.
